On Fire Baby versus 11 males in Smarty Jones
Horseracing Betting Lines
01/14/2012 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oaklawn Park's series for three-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail will get underway on Monday with the running of the $100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes. The mile event was won last year by eventual Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile champ Caleb's Posse.
Topping the field of 12 for the Smarty Jones is On Fire Baby, the only filly entered in the race. On Fire Baby, owned by Anita Cauley, will start from post 10 with Joe Johnson getting the call again. .
Trained by Gary 'Red Dog' Hartlage, On Fire Baby has won three of four starts including victories in the Pocahontas and Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs. After winning in her first career start at Ellis Park in August, the filly finished fifth at 40-1 in the Alcibiades Stakes in October at Keeneland.
On Fire Baby has earned $227,329 in her four starts.
Here is the complete field for the Smart Jones in post-position order: Laurie's Rocket, Brian Hernandez Jr.; Junebugred, Joe Bravo; Prince Cheval, Greta Kutzweiler; No Spin, Channing Hill; Fastestwhogetspaid, Israel Ocampo; Optimizer, Terry Thompson; Copus, Julio Felix; Jake Mo, Cliff Berry; Hard Nosed, Richardo Santana Jr.; On Fire Baby, Joe Johnson; King Corral, Gabriel Saez and Reckless Jerry, Shane Laviolette.
The Smarty Jones Stakes is named for the 2004 champion three-year-old colt who won the Arkansas Derby along with the Run for the Roses and Preakness Stakes.
Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Donte Poole posted a game-high 28 points as No. 15 Murray State survived a challenge from Tennessee Tech, but posted an 82-74 victory. Isaiah Canaan scored 24 points and Jewuan Long added 11 for the Racers (1
<< Broncos S Dawkins out against Patriots
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Broncos safety Brian Dawkins will miss
tonight's playoff game against the New England Patriots due to a neck injury.
The veteran has missed three of the team's last four games.
Broncos long snapper L
<< Taylor, No. 10 Kansas get past Iowa State
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyshawn Taylor's all-around performance of
28 points, six assists and four steals helped No. 10 Kansas pull out an
82-73 victory against Iowa State.
Thomas Robinson ended with 11 points and 14 reb
<< San Diego State ousts UNLV on Franklin's game-winner
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jamaal Franklin hit the game-winning basket
with 0.3 seconds left, lifting No. 22 San Diego State to a thrilling 69-67
victory over No. 12 UNLV on Saturday.
UNLV's Brice Massamba had made 1-of-2 free
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San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saints running back Pierre Thomas left
Saturday's divisional round game at San Francisco with a head injury after
taking a helmet-to-helmet hit.
Thomas caught a short pass from Drew Brees on the
Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Local stakes winner Russian Greek, the 3-2 favorite, came from last to win Saturday's $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The 1 1/16-mile race for three-year-olds is a prep event for the
49ers beat Saints in wild finish >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "I don't know what you would call this
one," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said of the instant-classic play. "The throw-
and-catch?"
How about "The Clutch."
When Vernon Davis hit the ground with Alex
No. 4 Stanford thumps Colorado >>
Boulder, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joslyn Tinkle netted a game-high 20 points
leading the fourth-ranked Stanford Cardinal to an 80-54 drubbing of Colorado
on Saturday.
Chiney Ogwumike finished with 19 points and nine rebounds, while Toni
Syracuse cruises to 19-0, tying school record >>
Syracuse, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scoop Jardine scored 10 points and dished out
nine assists to lead No. 1 Syracuse over Providence, 78-55, on Saturday.
Kris Joseph paced the Orange (19-0, 6-0 Big East) with 13 points, while Dion
Waiters a
Nieminen trumps Benneteau in Sydney final >>
Sydney, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jarkko Nieminen posted a 6-2, 7-5
victory over France's Julien Benneteau on Sunday to capture the $434,250 Apia
International Sydney, a tuneup for the Australian Open, which begins on
Monday.
Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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