Football Betting

In the FCS Huddle: Keeler isn't the FCS' only FBS candidate

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01/26/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ink seemingly wasn't dry on a contract that would send Greg Schiano from Rutgers to the head coaching job with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and already there was potential fallout:

Delaware coach K.C. Keeler's name came up as a potential successor to Schiano at Rutgers.

Not surprisingly, either.

Keeler's hiring at Rutgers would be one of those rise-through-the-ranks-and- take-the-next-step stories.

It was just over a year ago that Keeler was considered to be a candidate at another Big East program, Connecticut.

Keeler, 52, has the track record to be in the conversation, having taken Division III Rowan and Delaware of the FCS to a combined eight national championship games in 19 seasons as a head coach.

He has the East Coast connections, and New Jersey ties, which would be attractive to Rutgers' decision-makers. He also thinks outside the box and has a terrific understanding of what goes into building and developing a program.

The glaring negative, of course, is Keeler has never coached on the FBS level, even as an assistant.

While Keeler seemingly has the ability to make the jump successfully, a leap to Rutgers, even with the Big East having slipped in the last decade, would have him skipping the lower tier of the FBS to a job which would pay well over $1 million annually, although surely less than Schiano's salary there.

Keeler is one of a small handful of FCS head coaches who have never been a FBS head coach to appear ready to lead a program on that level - the kind the FBS school would pursue as much as the coach will go after it.

FCS head coaches like Appalachian State's Jerry Moore or Villanova's Andy Talley would land in the FBS anyway if their schools move there.

Other highly regarded FCS head coaches don't factor here because they have past experience as FBS head coaches, such as Georgia State's Bill Curry, Harvard's Tim Murphy and Jacksonville State's Jack Crowe.

Still others who haven't been FBS head coaches seem more like perfect fits for their current schools, or whose age might be a concern to schools on the higher level, are Montana State's Rob Ash, 60; James Madison's Mickey Matthews, 58; and New Hampshire's Sean McDonnell, 55.

While Keeler seems ready to make that jump to the FBS level, here are five other coaches who have the resume to become a FBS head coach for the first time:

Beau Baldwin - The 39-year-old might have to become an offensive coordinator first on the FBS level, but he's a young coach on the rise, having already won a FCS championship at Eastern Washington. He's flip-flopped enough at EWU and Division II Central Washington that he fits best for a FBS program in the Pacific Northwest.

Craig Bohl - One has to believe this incredibly serious, driven coach, at 53, would be interested in one more big challenge now that he's taken North Dakota State to the FCS level and then the national title. He was defensive coordinator at Nebraska and has plenty of other FBS experience as an assistant.

Willie Fritz - The Sam Houston State mentor was said to be a candidate for Tulane when that job was vacant this offseason. At 51, he's been coaching for nearly 30 seasons, but may not have enough Division I experience without becoming a defensive coordinator first. Still it's hard to ignore the Bearkats' 14-1 run in his second season.

Jeff Monken - It would take the right school at the right time - perhaps a program that is overmatched and willing to run an option to lessen its gap - but the 44-year-old has highly sought-after values and the recommendation of Paul Johnson, whom he assisted at Georgia Southern, Navy and Georgia Tech.

Bobby Wilder - Don't be fooled by the 10-year contract that Old Dominion gave its 47-year-old coach in December. The long-time Maine assistant has shown an uncanny ability to build a program from scratch, seemingly overnight. ODU is 27-8 through three seasons and already a success in competitive CAA Football.


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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

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NCAA Football Betting : USC's reward: Top spot in Top 25

NEW YORK (AP) -By staying away from the cupcakes, Southern California earned itself a slim new ranking.

No. 1 always seems to fit USC.

Southern California jumped two spots to No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 on Tuesday, rewarded by voters for opening the season with a dominant performance on the road against a BCS conference opponent.

Georgia and Ohio State, the preseason Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, started their seasons with glorified scrimmages at home against FCS (formerly I-AA) teams. USC, however, traveled across country to face Virginia and could not have been more impressive in a 52-7 victory.

Georgia fell to No. 2 and Ohio State to No 3.

"We realize that rankings so early in a season are certainly fluid. But rankings do help establish a pecking order for things later in the season," USC coach Pete Carroll said in a statement. "As for moving into the No. 1 spot, it's nice to know that people think highly of our team."

Since reaching No. 1 on Dec. 7, 2003, the final-regular season AP poll of that season, USC has been No. 1 in 39 polls, by far the most of any team during that time.

"Some have said the voters are taking our schedule into consideration," Carroll said. "Our philosophy has always been to schedule outstanding opponents. We need to play challenging games like we just did, traveling across the country to open the season at Virginia. Games like that bring out our best and make us stronger as a team."

The latest voting was close. USC received 21 first-place votes and 1,539 points from the 65-member media panel. Georgia had 20 first-place votes and 1,506 points. Ohio State got 15 first-place votes and 1,497 points.

"I'd say we've evolved as pollsters," said Stewart Mandel of SI.com, who moved USC up to No. 1. "In the past, voters just kind of automatically moved teams up and kept teams where they were if they won."

Georgia beat Georgia Southern 45-21 on Saturday and Ohio State opened with a 43-0 win over Youngstown State.

"There's a bit of a growing backlash for the amount of teams that open with I-AA cupcakes," said Mandel, whose book "Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls" chronicles college football's controversies. "To see a team [USC] go on the road and play a New Year's Day bowl team from last season, and not only play them but destroy them, how could you not reward that team?"

USC also jumped past Georgia to No. 1 in the USA Today coaches' poll, which has the same top five as the AP poll.

"It's definitely a privilege to be No. 1. But it's not heartbreaking to me if we drop," Georgia offensive lineman Josh Davis said. "It doesn't matter right now what we're ranked. What matters is our next game and right now, that's Central Michigan. The only time the polls matter is in December. That's when the polls matter."

While the Bulldogs opened easy, their schedule ultimately should be as difficult as any team's. Georgia's big nonconference test is at No. 15 Arizona State on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs also face six Southeastern Conference rivals that've been ranked in the first two polls.

As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes play at USC on Sept. 13 before getting into the Big Ten schedule.

But of the teams in this week's top 10, USC and Texas are the only ones that don't play an FCS opponent, and the Trojans are the only team that doesn't play a team from a non-BCS conference.

Get the latest 2009 BCS Championship odds at MySportsbook.com.

The last team to drop from No. 1 after a victory was USC last season. LSU jumped from No. 2 to No. 1 when it beat Tulane 34-9, the same week the Trojans edged Washington 27-24 on the road.

The last preseason No. 1 team to lose the top spot after winning its opening game was Florida in 2001. The Gators beat Marshall 49-14, but preseason No. 2 Miami opened with a 33-7 victory over Penn State and the Hurricanes jumped to No. 1 with Florida slipping to second.

The next four teams in the new Top 25 stayed the same: No. 4 Oklahoma (two first-place votes), No. 5 Florida (five first-place votes), No. 6 Missouri (one first-place vote), No. 7 LSU (one first-place vote) and No. 8 West Virginia.

No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Texas each moved up a spot, taking advantage of Clemson's big drop. Clemson, ninth in the preseason, fell out after losing 34-10 to Alabama on Saturday.

Also falling out after losses were Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.

Moving into the rankings were No. 21 Fresno State, No. 22 Utah, No. 23 UCLA and No. 24 South Carolina.

Alabama moved up 11 spots after its big victory over Clemson.

The second 10 started with No. 11 Wisconsin, followed by Texas Tech, Alabama and Kansas. BYU and Arizona State were tied for 15th. Rivals BYU and Utah are both ranked for the first time since 1996.

South Florida was No. 17, ahead of Oregon, Penn State and Wake Forest at No. 20.

The final five were all the teams to move into the ranking, except for Illinois, which dropped four spots and tied South Carolina for No. 24.

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